pandemic

Anything goes, but keep it seemly...

pandemic

Postby dukuso » Sun Mar 12, 2006 9:33 am

OK, this is offtopic - but it could be a lifechanging event.
And when most people isolate for 6 months, they will have
a lot of freetime to be filled with things like sudoku.

I was just searching for keyword "pandemic" here - no hit.
Could it be, that sudoku-addicts are just ignoring the H5N1-pandemic
threat and that I'm the only one who stopped thinking about
(useless..) sudokus some time ago and started to concentrate
on bird-flu forums instead ?
I'm missing there the logics of my earlier sudoku-diskussions, though.
It's more emotional, more opinions and you can't so well argue with logics as here.

But isn't it also unlogical to ignore this completely here ??
Isn't there any of my old sudoku-fellows to talk with me about
the pandemic and on writing software to predict the mutations ?? ....

Guenter.
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Postby udosuk » Sun Mar 12, 2006 12:32 pm

I think most people visiting these forums are from the UK area to whom H5N1 is not too much a threat yet (?) I know it's a big worry in China & HK (where Wayne Gould has a lot of association to).

Another reason I could think of is people visit these forums to relax and get away from daily stress and serious social issues, which is why this is exactly the subject topic we want to avoid/pretend not seeing...
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Postby tarek » Sun Mar 12, 2006 12:43 pm

udosuk wrote:which is why this is exactly the subject topic we want to avoid/pretend not seeing...

Unless you are an immunocompromised geriatric who enjoys intimate ornithophilia & palying sudoku:D

& Guenter,
As far I'm aware, The JELLYFISH is the most dangerous creature on this planet, which is why we discuss more of it over here:D

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Postby Pi » Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:38 pm

When it come i reckon there will be a major boredome because of the quarantine, everyone will turn to sudoku and soon the whole planet will be addicted.

After that when we can go outside again people who can solve them quickly or make them will take over the world!
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Postby QBasicMac » Sun Apr 02, 2006 3:10 am

My opinion is that there is no "pandemic", just "hysteria".

To bird flu, I say "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz"

Aids affects many more.

The real problem we have is not natural threats but religion! Nuts are going to blow up the world long before any virus reaches us.

Mac
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Postby lunababy_moonchild » Sun Apr 02, 2006 9:26 am

tarek wrote:Unless you are an immunocompromised geriatric who enjoys intimate ornithophilia ..............

As far as I'm aware - which means nothing of course - it would be vulnerable people who sleep/live with their fowl who would be at risk - and generally speaking in the UK we don't do that. If the virus mutates, however, and then transfers between humans ................

It's not in the UK and I think we only need to worry about it if or when it does get here. Even then, I don't think that it's going to kill 20,000 people a day, as I saw reported recently.

It never fails to amaze me, here we are in the 21st century and we still have people on the globe living in close quarters with their animals.

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Postby MCC » Sun Apr 02, 2006 10:55 am

QBasicMac wrote:..."zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz"

Sounds like Bee flu.


QBasicMac wrote:..."The real problem we have is not natural threats but religion! Nuts are going to blow up the world long before any virus reaches us.

Mac

But what if they use a virological weapon:?:

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Postby Pi » Sun Apr 02, 2006 11:33 am

lunababy_moonchild wrote:If the virus mutates, however, and then transfers between humans ................


If the virus mutates i reckon it will mutate into a non-lethal form.

After all a virus dies when the human dies and the most deadly virus's like ebola never spread too far because they kill people too quickly.

The common cold is a great virus, it will be around for ages because it is safe and gets spread
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Postby dukuso » Fri Jun 16, 2006 6:55 pm

world's most reknowned virologist said in an interview that
he gives it 50% probability for a pandemic and that half
of the world's population could die.
http://avianflu.typepad.com/avianflu/2006/03/robert_webster_.html
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Postby QBasicMac » Fri Jun 16, 2006 7:45 pm

dukuso wrote:world's most reknowned virologist said in an interview that he gives it 50% probability for a pandemic and that half
of the world's population could die.


Did you read the rebuttals, etc.? Anyway, one of them has a long list of porno sites. Very appropriate. Now THERE is a good way to get a virus.

Mac
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Postby dukuso » Fri Jun 16, 2006 8:08 pm

for a better discussion see e.g. here:
[Edited by Luna]

Webster did not repeat that statement. Nor did he withdraw from it.
He switched to a "no one knows..." strategy. I assume they told
him, not to give such interviews.

BTW. did someone notice that WHO admitted human to
human transmission in Indonesia now ?
It's not being reported in the main media !

www.pandemicflu.gov
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/biofacts/panflu.html
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Postby dukuso » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:17 am

in case you wonder, why I bring this up on a sudoku-board.
I've spent lots of time last year here to investigate
the sudoku-math and found some quite clever people
who I enjoyed to communicate with.
Now I'm over to the bird-flu forums (search the web, luna-moderator
won't allow links to other forums) and I'm missing the
logics from the sudoku-boards.
One think, which I find particularily annoying is, that experts
(virologists,epidemiologists) refuse to give their subjective
probability estimates for a pandemic and expectation values
for the expected number of deaths.
However, they are still warning and describing the threat
by colorful words. Anyway, when you read a bit about it, it's quite
clear that the (uninformed) public masses are underestimating the
risk and that the media are underreporting about it.
I wonder whether that's also true for
sudokuists, who claim to be more logical than average !
Can I do a poll here ? How many % of people here are
preparing for an influenza-pandemic ?
What's your expectation value of the number of human H5N1-deaths
in the next 3 years ?
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Postby MCC » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:14 am

Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO




dukuso wrote:...Can I do a poll here ? How many % of people here are
preparing for an influenza-pandemic ?

I'll assume you're talking about bird flu.

There is no vaccine against bird flu and there probably will be none ready whenever or if a pandemic occurs.

Any bird flu virus that exists will probably mutate, and until a pandemic occurs and a particular strain of virus isolated, no vaccine can be produced.

The only preperation that anyone can do, is to have the latest flu jab that's going, even that may be totally useless against bird flu.

dukuso wrote:...What's your expectation value of the number of human H5N1-deaths
in the next 3 years ?

Over the next three years I estimate that there will be between 200 - 300 deaths.

dukuso wrote:...Anyway, when you read a bit about it, it's quite
clear that the (uninformed) public masses are underestimating the
risk and that the media are underreporting about it.

How can you say that the public are underestimating the risk, they can only read and interpert what the media publishes, and if, as you say, the media are underreporting the matter, then the general public does not have the knowledge to have a fuller understanding of the risks that may be involved.

Underreporting infections and deaths is mainly political, take China for instance, it's a matter of face, China does not want the rest of the World knowing that it cannot handle any outbreaks that occur, so therefore reports only what it wants to.


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Postby dukuso » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:23 am

some people are preparing to isolate themselves in a pandemic,
storing food and other necessities.


the public could -in theory- get information from the internet.


OK, since most non-math people are not familiar with "expectation value",
I reformulate the question:
What do you estimate is the probability that there will be more than
100million human H5N1-deaths in the next 3 years ?
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Postby MCC » Sun Jun 18, 2006 4:09 pm

dukuso wrote:some people are preparing to isolate themselves in a pandemic,
storing food and other necessities.

The virus would spread faster in small groups that are in close proximity to each other.

How soon should people isolate themselves from the rest of society:?:

What happens if they start too soon and then run out of water, what then, do they venture out and run the risk of catching the virus or die of thirst:?:

If a panic does ensue, I think more people would die in the panic than would die from the virus.


dukuso wrote:...the public could -in theory- get information from the internet.

If they have access to the internet.


dukuso wrote:OK, since most non-math people are not familiar with "expectation value",
I reformulate the question:
What do you estimate is the probability that there will be more than
100million human H5N1-deaths in the next 3 years ?

That depends on where a outbreak occurs and what facilities are available to isolate the infected area.

The virus could mutate to a less vicious strain, nasty but survivable.

Generally, I think, at the moment, the probability of more than a 100million human H5N1-deaths in the next three years is quite low.


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