The New Sudoku Players' Forum

[dukuso]

>The virus would spread faster in small groups that are in close
>proximity to each other.
>How soon should people isolate themselves from the rest of society

when you have thousands of deaths per week in Asia and
the first cases are reported in your area. Watch TV,Internet

>What happens if they start too soon and then run out of water,
>what then, do they venture out and run the risk of catching the
>virus or die of thirst

get protective clothes,masks. Water could be there in some towns
get informed about your local water and electricity.
Water, food can probably also be delivered by specialized
protected delivery services. But expensive and you better
desinfect what you get.

>If a panic does ensue, I think more people would die in
>the panic than would die from the virus.

no. That didn't happen 1918. But quite some people will die
because they can't get medical care for normal,non-bird-flu
things.

>dukuso wrote:
>>...the public could -in theory- get information from the internet.
>>
>
>If they have access to the internet.

yes. Or in Germany, when you don't speak English it's difficult
to get information. I found nothing here about the recent
Indonesian clusters and WHO admitting human-to-human infections.

>dukuso wrote:
>>OK, since most non-math people are not familiar with "expectation value",
>>I reformulate the question:
>>What do you estimate is the probability that there will be more than
>>100million human H5N1-deaths in the next 3 years ?
>
>That depends on where a outbreak occurs and what facilities
>are available to isolate the infected area.
>
>The virus could mutate to a less vicious strain, nasty but
>survivable.

yes, you have to estimate how likely these are...

>Generally, I think, at the moment, the probability of more than
>a 100million human H5N1-deaths in the next three years is quite low.

can you give a number, please ? Less than 10% ?
What about more than 1000 million deaths ?

I will post some estimates later, first I'd like to see some
estimates from people here.

[lunababy_moonchild]

Why - and this is a genuine request for information - is this duscussion concentrating on how many (millions) of people who may or may not die?

I don't doubt that the virus is real and that it is killing people - albeit people who are in the habit of living in close proximity with their fowl - but should the focus not be on something a little more constructive that how many people could possibly die - which is impossible to predict anyway?

Let's stick to the known facts here. I don't think that anybody can look into the future with certainty.

Luna

[dukuso]

>Why - and this is a genuine request for information - is this
>duscussion concentrating on how many (millions) of people who
>may or may not die?

make a better suggestion. I assume the number of deaths is
also proportional to the financial damage and the number of illnesses.

>I don't doubt that the virus is real and that it is killing people -
> albeit people who are in the habit of living in close proximity with
> their fowl -

the cause of infection is actually changing already

> but should the focus not be on something a little more
> constructive that how many people could possibly die -

I don't understand what you mean. What's "constructive" in this context ?

> which is impossible to predict anyway?

nothing is impossible to predict.

>Let's stick to the known facts here. I don't think that anybody
>can look into the future with certainty.

no certainty, but probability. You are very restricted in your analysis
and communication if you only distinguish certain and noncertain
future events.

>Luna


Guenter.

[udosuk]

I could still recall the SARS saga in 2003... I think thousands of people died in China, but the official figure was ~350 (which was unrealistic, because Hong Kong, with 0.5% of population and a much better health care system, had ~300 deaths)... I think during that time many places had enforced some mandatory home quarantine actions (i.e. suspected patients had to be isolated at home for days)....

Anyway from this site the official death figure for H5N1 so far is 129 (worldwide, from 2003 to now) so the scenario of 1000s of millions of people dying is quite hard to imagine now... Of course that source might not be 100% reliable... And nobody knows what will happen when the virus mutates...

I don't wanna guess actual probability figures now because I suspect Guenter will post some surprising figures up soon which will make me look downright silly... But I'd be interested in those figures and what would the evidences be from those experts that back them up...

[dukuso]

>I could still recall the SARS saga in 2003... I think thousands
>of people died in China, but the official figure was ~350 (which
>was unrealistic, because Hong Kong, with 0.5% of population and
>a much better health care system, had ~300 deaths)... I think
>during that time many places had enforced some mandatory home
>quarantine actions (i.e. suspected patients had to be isolated
>at home for days)....

yes, many people compare it with SARS. But with H5N1 you can infect
others while being asymptomatic. Influenza pandemics in history
are domcumented when a new H-strain appeared
with 20%-30% of world's population infected.
E.g. 1918(H1N1),1957(H2N2),1968(H3N2).

>Anyway from this site the official death figure for H5N1 so far
>is 129 (worldwide, from 2003 to now) so the scenario of
>1000s of millions of people dying is quite hard to imagine now...

yes, and I think this is intentional. Did you notice that most
reports contain this 129 number ?

>Of course that source might not be 100% reliable... And nobody
>knows what will happen when the virus mutates...
>
>I don't wanna guess actual probability figures now because I
>suspect Guenter will post some surprising figures up soon which
>will make me look downright silly...

looking silly with such things is no loss of honor.
Looking silly when being uninformed can always happen.
We must try to estimate it IMO. You can always correct
your estimate later.

>But I'd be interested in
>those figures and what would the evidences be from those experts
>that back them up...

yes, good you are interested ! Most people are uninformed
and ignorant and not willing to spend some minutes to inform.

BTW. I'm missing the logic from the math. and sudoku forums
when talking with others about this on bird-flu forums !