.
Well, since our 11-clue search has so far produced no additions to the known cases (18 puzzles on 12 CF gridsCF), coloin and I have been looking at 12-clue puzzles.
We can safely assume that the overwhelming majority of these will be minimal puzzles, since unless we find new 11-clue cases, there are only 18 x 70 non-minimal 12-clue puzzles (on CF grids).
How many 12-clue puzzles might there be? Random CF grid tests using HS testing method in (9B + 8) reduction mode (ie: reducible to 3B + 9) suggests that the number of grids with 12-clue puzzles is around 1 in 500, so from 54 million CF grids we might expect to find 100,000 have 12-clue puzzles. That would translate to 400,000 - 500,000 ED grids.
The HS method, whether in full-enumeration or in reduction mode, is much slower here than for 11-clue testing, since we have to test HSets of greater size in both cases. Added to this we must also test a lot more grids - we can only eliminate half of the grids (based on these results).
The good news is that 12-clue puzzles are much easier to find by non-HS methods. In particular we have found that one can obtain new 12-clue puzzles by {+1, -1} morphing from a starting grid, then applying the morphing to the resulting set, and repeating this process. The set of 12-clue puzzles (in the generalised SudokuP puzzle space) appears to be strongly connected by a combination of {+1, -1} and {+2, -2} morphing operations.
When we build a large enough set of morphed 12-clue puzzles, we then convert them to CF and add the reduced set to our catalog. As a result, in only a week, we have found 40,000 CF grids, 200,000 CF puzzles on these grids. That is a sizeable chunk of the number predicted by random sampling.
Of course, using this method is essentially a Markov Chain process - even if the set of 12C puzzles was fully connected by simple morphing operations, it is relatively easy to find the first 50% typically, but then it gets progressively harder to find the remainder.
Meanwhile, should any of you have a stash of 12-clue puzzles, please let me know!