tknottet wrote:Would you kindly try completely random T&E?
(...)
tknottet wrote:blueblue wrote:I'll see how it goes, but I'm sure I'll run into to problems trying the highest rated puzzles.
Thank you very much. I am interested to the highest rated puzzles more。
I was only anxious about the processing time, when I wrote "even for relatively not-hard puzzle".
tknottet wrote:I had forgotten important thing.
To shorten calculation time, my rating code works as follows,
In case
Pxy is created by y-assumption after x-assumption.
(from P1, P1(x) is created P1=P1(x) for recursion; from P1, P1(y) is created)
Pyx is created by x-assumption after y-assumption.
My rating assume that R(Pxy)=R(Pyx).If R(Pxy) is already calculated, R(Pyx) is not calculated. R(Pxy) is used in place of R(yx).
blue wrote:I can try producing actual resolution paths too, and see how that works -- like the "1,000,000" paths I was using in my "bug hunt" (only fewer !).
I used something similar to that last idea of yours, and for the high rated puzzles I ran out of RAM, long before running out of patience.
Without that, the times would have been too long for me, even before switching to "completely random T&E".
I did get exact ratings for all but one of the puzzles that were showing the largest increase in ratings, as more solving techiniques were added.
For the rest, I used the "Monte Carlo" method to estimate them -- with 100,000 (random) resolution paths per puzzle.
The results are below, with the +/- error estimates ("95% confidence intervals") in [] brackets.
The entries with "[ ---- ]" for the error estimates, are exact.
Your conjecture was right ... the ratings do decrease now, as more techniques are added.
They're also much larger than before ... which was to be expected.
[ A warning: The table has 48*4 = 192 entries, with "95% confidence" intervals listed.
That
really does mean that 5%, or around 10 of the values are expected to be off by more than amount estimated.
(By Murphy's Law then, it will be more like 15 or 20
) ]
- Code: Select all
s lcs lslcs flslcs | puzzle
------------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------
2837.6411[11.0697] 1732.7576[6.9854] 1257.5863[5.1746] 221.4512[4.9982] | Suexrat9-10364
1045.8720[ 4.1418] 657.3957[2.6455] 422.0471[1.7565] 411.8501[1.7086] | Fata_Morgana
350.9959[ 1.4117] 279.4144[1.1337] 205.3841[0.8545] 193.9415[0.8114] | Easter Monster
------------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------
506.4876[ 2.0044] 371.4171[1.4854] 254.8834[1.0514] 249.2565[1.0212] | GoldenNugget
551.8360[ 2.2459] 401.1752[1.6540] 272.3358[1.1533] 265.0773[1.1193] | Kolk
395.5535[ 1.5409] 252.1849[0.9893] 152.4844[0.6212] 143.8617[0.5784] | Patience
471.2459[ 1.9059] 330.2747[1.3639] 241.2798[1.0099] 234.7850[0.9793] | Imam_bayildi
457.0100[ 1.8400] 342.7118[1.3971] 254.5702[1.0657] 244.0285[1.0119] | Second_flush
395.0741[ 1.6137] 302.9497[1.2502] 221.0666[0.9211] 213.5680[0.8898] | champagne_dry
390.1755[ 1.5470] 299.4366[1.1979] 216.3965[0.8769] 209.6792[0.8398] | eleven212
495.4484[ 1.8840] 328.3231[1.2643] 175.4886[0.7181] 170.9934[0.6932] | Discrepancy
336.5130[ 1.3306] 254.9260[1.0206] 180.7444[0.7380] 175.7364[0.7127] | Red_Dwarf
411.2148[ 1.6271] 224.2419[0.9205] 124.2704[0.5281] 118.7662[0.5055] | AI_WorldHardest:Everest(2012)
107.4602[ 0.4332] 84.6703[0.3465] 66.3755[0.2745] 62.7662[0.2558] | AI_WorldHardest2006Escargot
56.5633[ 0.2263] 49.2721[0.1960] 40.0939[0.1555] 38.7018[0.1490] | AI_WorldHardest2010
221.8977[ 1.0418] 73.5807[0.3977] 23.5380[0.1513] 23.4970[0.1505] | 17Hints35410
310.0595[ 1.4770] 102.8108[0.5646] 27.1209[0.1795] 26.7314[0.1771] | 17Hints35409
204.7902[ 1.4726] 97.5384[0.7493] 67.0491[0.5355] 66.1967[0.5279] | 17Hints2919
37.3773[ 0.1880] 26.9272[0.1307] 25.9820[0.1244] 25.1625[0.1174] | 17Hints41826
230.1841[ 1.2807] 61.0685[ ---- ] 49.6120[ ---- ] 48.9874[ ---- ] | 17Hints48126
182.6256[ 1.0085] 116.7759[0.6505] 49.7271[0.3177] 49.0949[0.3156] | JapaneseSuperComputer322
176.6585[ 0.7989] 54.2425[0.2830] 14.7182[0.0897] 14.6382[0.0886] | 17Hints35043
19.9218[ 0.0857] 9.7945[0.0428] 9.3973[0.0402] 9.3930[0.0401] | 17Hints41164
176.4659[ 0.8091] 59.0370[0.3137] 16.1876[0.1007] 16.0704[0.0993] | 17Hints35045
89.1453[ 0.4328] 37.7059[0.2039] 13.4603[0.0869] 13.0512[0.0828] | 17Hints24147
90.6854[ 0.4408] 38.4847[0.2040] 14.4302[0.0905] 14.0332[0.0868] | 17Hints35044
99.3991[ 0.4895] 39.8821[0.2167] 15.9305[0.1067] 15.4507[0.1005] | 17Hints35042
13.4591[ ----- ] 9.1834[ ---- ] 9.0880[ ---- ] 9.0573[ ---- ] | 17Hints28653
69.0613[ 0.3293] 24.8517[0.1314] 9.5955[0.0533] 9.5191[0.0528] | 17Hints24153
21.2028[ 0.1217] 6.0441[0.0258] 6.0254[0.0256] 5.8568[0.0246] | 17Hints18573
9.9436[ 0.0408] 6.2056[0.0291] 5.4081[0.0254] 4.7402[0.0213] | 17Hints42464
26.3757[ ----- ] 18.2355[ ---- ] 17.6096[ ---- ] 17.6034[ ---- ] | 17Hints41972
60.2300[ 0.3178] 37.5729[0.1932] 6.7376[0.0308] 6.7693[0.0309] | 17Hints32733
34.7399[ ----- ] 19.8533[ ---- ] 18.4648[ ---- ] 18.4279[ ---- ] | 17Hints33052
37.0379[ ----- ] 21.7452[ ---- ] 20.7196[ ---- ] 20.6797[ ---- ] | 17Hints4934
29.4988[ 0.1478] 25.0467[0.1250] 18.4737[0.0903] 18.4435[0.0898] | JapaneseSuperComputer313
82.4777[ 0.4134] 29.5126[0.1628] 4.6890[0.0243] 4.6606[0.0240] | 17Hints41750
5.5031[ 0.0202] 5.3001[0.0192] 5.2866[0.0192] 5.1425[0.0188] | 17Hints12538
9.5918[ 0.0397] 5.7501[0.0249] 5.7398[0.0249] 5.6575[0.0237] | 17Hints12995
17.4634[ 0.0884] 9.9103[0.0508] 9.5671[0.0488] 9.5296[0.0485] | 17Hints21752
7.1424[ 0.0292] 6.9345[0.0281] 6.8951[0.0279] 6.5610[0.0259] | 17Hints26041
9.3131[ 0.0421] 6.3814[0.0282] 6.1177[0.0273] 6.1000[0.0270] | 17Hints39923
14.8652[ 0.0734] 3.8479[0.0106] 3.8215[0.0104] 3.8215[0.0104] | 17Hints40086
583.6611[ 3.8938] 196.6350[1.5525] 62.3326[0.5619] 59.7163[0.5383] | 17Hints44580
7.5965[ 0.0299] 5.7090[0.0240] 5.6149[0.0240] 5.6052[0.0239] | 17Hints47137
7.8469[ 0.0271] 5.8220[0.0251] 5.7412[0.0247] 5.7303[0.0244] | 17Hints48498
4.9252[ 0.0194] 4.8064[0.0188] 4.6547[0.0178] 4.6437[0.0178] | 17Hints8780
5.5584[ 0.0267] 5.2700[0.0250] 5.2962[0.0250] 5.2413[0.0246] | 17Hints9404