To reopen an old wound, I think
ravel mentioned this method earlier. Help to verify my figures and estimations would be appreciated !
If there really are 10^16 puzzles - A "real" puzzle distribution
might look like this !
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18 0
19 40
20 2,000
21 500,000
22 ? 10,000,000,000
23 ? 500,000,000,000,000
24 ? 3,000,000,000,000,000
25 ? 3,000,000,000,000,000
26 ? 3,000,000,000,000,000
27 ? 500,000,000,000,000
28 ? 50,000,000,000
29 ? 1,000,000,000
30 ? 100,000,000
31 ? 10,000,000
32 ? 1,000,000
33 ? 10,000
34 ? 1000
35 4
36 0
Lets see if I can estimate the number of 25 clue puzzles in a grid
How many ways are there to put 25 clues at random into a single valid grid
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81! / 56!*25! = 525652003943603702568 = 5.25 * 10^20
how many will be invalid ?
Only a very small proportion will have absent clues in two rows in the same band, and only a small proportion will fail to have at least 8 clue numbers [less than 1% total]
I estimated how often 25 clues will [minimally] solve a given grid by making a random mask and solving it over a large number of "random" grids
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Out of 800,000 puzzles
mask minimal puzzles
1 18
2 7
3 5
average 10 puzzles, therefore = 1 in 80000
Out of 4,900,000 puzzles
mask minimal puzzles
4 23
therefore = 1 in 200,000
This small study may give an average of
1 in 100000 randomly picked masks of 25 clues will be minimal and valid.
I appreciate that this does not tally with ravels work - and that the effect that is shown here is that some masks are much better than others....
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[5.2 * 10^20]
Estim number of 25 puzzles in a grid = --------------------------------- = 5.1*10^15
100000 [average]
only 3/10s of puzzles have 25 clues......
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Estim number of puzzles in a grid = 5.2*10^15 * 10/3 = 1.7*10^16
C